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Gold für Al´Greenspan
15 June 2007
Gold für Big Al.
Eine einfache Frage:
Wann hat Alan Greenspan in welcher Disziplin olympisches Gold gewonnen? Ach, sie wissen nicht wer Alan Greenspan, kurz Big Al ist und was er war? Aber die Frage sei erlaubt:
Warum will sich der ehemalige Chef der privaten FED, Alan Greenspan, sein Honorar nicht in Dollars oder einer anderen Papierwährung, wie Euro, Yen, CHF, ausbezahlen lassen, sondern in Gold?
Noch dazu soll dieses Gold - 200.000.000.- pro Jahr - nicht in einer Amerikanischen Bank sondern auf einen, im sicheren Hafen Schweiz angelegten Konto von seinem neuen Arbeitgeber einbezahlt werden. Sie fragen auch hier warum?
Wahrscheinlich kennen sie nicht wie Big Al, die US Gesetze, sowie das Goldbesitzverbot mit dem Amerika in schwierigen Zeiten währungspolitischer Art, seine Untertanen ala 1933 belegte.
Offensichtlich schätzt er die momentane wie kommende Lage des US-Dollars nicht sehr rosig ein. Wenn es sie interessiert, so lesen Sie den folgenden englischen Artikel von: http://www.goldsilverbullion.com/BullionMarketInsights.htm#Jun12
June 12, 2007: Bonds Creating Golden Launchpad.
Would someone please get a message to Bill Gross at PIMCO that he needs to fire the recently hired Alan Greenspan as an advisor and hire the Sage at $100 Million per half-year compensation! Payable in gold only in a Swiss account, please, don't give me no devaluing Dollars! The Bond Bull Market of the last 27 years has come to a fiery end, JUST AS THE SAGE PREDICTED AT THE END OF 2006. Now I don't like to gloat but very few guru's at any rung on the compensation ladder predicted some 6 months ago that interest rates were going higher in 2007. You see, instead of spending inordinate amounts of time trying to decorate the summer mansion in the Hamptons, the Sage takes 30 years of financial and investing experience, and actually comes up with correct forecasts. Not always, just most of the time, which is what counts in the long run. Okay, I am dismounting from my High Horse, and coming back to terra firma.And before any of you Precious Metals Investors (PMI's) or Wannabe's get panicked by tales of higher interest rates being bad for Gold and Silver, come back from the ledge. Were U.S. interest rates, adjusted for rampaging inflation in the 8% plus zone in real life, actually providing a REAL RATE OF RETURN to yield-hungry investors, both Foreign and Domestic, then this argument may have some validity, BUT NOT AT THIS NANOSECOND IN HISTORY. Real rates, those obtained by acquiring U.S. Dollars first, are NEGATIVE in U.S. debt instruments unless one is buying the paper of a Subprime Lender, and of course, you will be papering the outhouse walls with that stuff in a few months. Bonds at 5.2% are no competition to either Gold or Silver. Bonds at 6.2% (my year-end forecast?) are no competition to either Gold or Silver. Bonds at 7.2% are no competition to either Gold or Silver. You get the point. It would truly take 10-year Treasury yields north of 10% for money to flow into these promises to pay in lieu of either gold or silver in the quarters and years ahead and at a real rate after inflation of only a couple of percentage points, not much competition at that.
Bonds have been known to default. The U.S. Government is already defaulting on its sovereign debt by allowing the Dollar to head toward zero on a purchasing parity basis. Gold and Silver have never defaulted, because they are hard, tangible assets that are coveted and accepted as payment around the world and have been so for a couple of thousand years now. They are backed fully by their intrinsic values that are established virtually every waking moment of the work-day. You must buy U.S. Dollars to purchase U.S. Debt, but you can purchase Gold and Silver in any currency some 23-hours per day at virtually any place around the world. And the fact that Gold and Silver can be denominated in any currency known to man, makes them the ultimate currencies that have excellent liquidity and fungibility in all major and minor financial markets around the world. And since these precious metals are traded around the world around the clock, don't think for a minute that the Comex will have the last word in daily price setting as bond yields head higher. Watch pre-Comex opening prices and post-Comex closing prices in the months ahead! THE MANIPULATIVE GRIP OF THE COMEX ON BOTH GOLD AND SILVER PRICES IS COMING TO AN END. I have said this before and it could never be more true. Another Sage prediction that is worth much more money per hour than a Greenspan shot-in-the-dark prognostication.
THE WORLD HAS FINALLY AWAKENED TO THE SINKING VALUE OF DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT, AND THEY EITHER WANT NONE OF IT, MUCH LESS OF IT, OR A LITTLE OF IT AT MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES.
Now Spain can sell all of its gold reserves to generate still depleting foreign currency reserves (buying too many castanets from Jersey?), but foreign buyers have stepped up to the plate and basically put a floor under the gold price. U.S. investors, in net, have been sellers during recent swoons, a very bullish contrarian indicator, also known as the Pampers Indicator (PI). Interesting how the British Central Banker that sold a good bit of Britain's gold reserves toward a 27-year low around $255 per ounce is going to be their new Prime Minister, but politicians were born with dancing shoes on, just ask Hillary. Once again, supporting the argument for mega-compensation for the Sage, I predicted years ago that Precious Metals Investors (PMI's) were going to be shocked when Central Banks stopped selling gold and went on the buy side. China, India, Russia, many Middle Eastern countries, Indonesia, to name a few, are quietly and significantly increasing their gold reserves in lieu of Dollars while Spain becomes the Exchequer of Poor Timing, 2007. Gold sales from Central Banks are all noise and little substance anyway, because the metal is going from fickle, politically-influenced hands to long-term, very strong hands. Nothing could be better for a sustained bull market in gold.
Higher interest rates guarantee that the current recession in housing and homebuilding is not going to be one of short duration and shallow severity. We have seen nothing yet as to mortgage defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies of major lenders, both prime and subprime, both money center and local. The demise of bond prices in favor of higher interest rates as a bribe for foreigners to take our never-ending debt is putting more and more stress on an already stretched financial system as many homeowners and financial speculators alike are caught on the wrong side of this interest rate trend ..... WHICH IS UP. So it is both the so-called "dumb money" AND so-called "smart money" that is getting caught with their predictions down, not to mention their pants and bank accounts. Hence, the title for this month's Dewdrops of Wisdom, "Bonds Creating Golden Launchpad". The reverse of the 27-year reduction in interest rates and rallying bond prices is extremely favorable for both gold and silver. The disruptions to economic growth, financial systems, currencies, AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE will be monumental, mark the Sage's Words (SW)!
Any short-term rally in the U.S. Dollar is merely an opportunity for more Central Banks and foreign investors to UNLOAD GREENBACKS. In bear markets, you sell the rallies, and there has to be some outside advisors to the Central Bankers, especially those who are at the head of the class in diversifying out of the Dollar sooner rather than later. Any pressure put on the Gold and Silver bullion markets by a near-term rally in the Dollar will be capped as to severity and time duration by the Billions and Billions of Dollar hoards that are begging to be reduced in size by increasingly unhappy Dollar Holders. So don't get fooled by the recent Dead-Cat Bounce in the Dollar. As we sink further and further into recession in the U.S. this year, the Treasury will have no choice but to float more U.S. Debt in Dollars on top of a SURGING SEA OF U.S. DEBT swilling around the world. You don't throw more water to a drowning man!
As intermediate U.S. interest rates head toward 6% during 2007, and the Fed has to possibly tighten to play catch-up and reassert its Inflation Fighter Of First Resort status (IFOFR), let's see what alternative investment markets are going to attempt to provide competition to gold and silver as superb long-term investments:
1. Stock Market, U.S. in particular: Nope, just began a decades-long New BEAR Market (another Sage prediction worth $200 Million per annum!)
2. Money Market Accounts: NOPE, still yielding a negative Real Rate of Return of almost MINUS FOUR PERCENT!!! (i.e. -4.0%, not + ).
3. Residential or Commercial Real Estate: Nope, Nope, Nope, how do you even make money in commercial real estate during a recession in progress with rising vacancy rates/downward pressure on rents AND rising operating costs of property taxes, maintenance, and interest-related carrying costs.
4. Stock Markets, Foreign & Emerging: Nope, if you think Wall Street is a wild and crazy place, which it unquestionably has become, just be sitting in Chinese or Brazilian stocks when the inevitable correction/bear phase begins and there is no liquidity or floor traders to handle your Offer to Sell. Stay tuned momentum players, and do adjust your Pampers. 6% down in a day is child's play for these markets.
5. U.S. and Foreign Debt Instruments: Nope and Nope, because rates are going higher on a global basis, not just in the U.S., to quell speculative froth in asset markets (unlike the U.S. Fed's approach to markets!) AND INFLATION HAS YET TO PEAK ON ANY CONTINENT!!! Very bad choice, but don't tell PIMCO's Board that I said this because I still want Alan's job there for $200 Million per year. Kilogram gold bars deposited in Geneva will be just fine.
Spica dazu:
Greenspan ist ein Fisch. Man sagt Ihnen nach, dass sie einen unheimlichen Instinkt besitzen sollen, für unbewusste Strömungen der Zeit. Und Fischen gleich, die sich in ihrem Element, dem Wasser tummeln, bewegt sich dieser Fisch aalgleich in einem Meer aus Liquidität. Einer Flüssigkeit, die er, als er Notenbankchef war, selbst miterschaffen hat.
Man könnte meinen, dass er das wässrige Element, dass er zum Überleben braucht dadurch förderte, dass er den Markt mit frischen Kreditgeld versorgte, um ihn vor einen Absturz zu bewahren.
Nun, der Absturz kam dennoch, die Blase platzte im Jahr 2000, noch vor dem 11.September 2001. Und so meinen manche, dass diese Finanzkrise ein 9/11 hervorrief, damit die angeschlagene US-Friedenswirtschaft auf Kriegswirtschaft umschalten konnte, was den Markt aus seiner Misere rettete. Seit dem März 2003 befinden sich die US-märkte aufgrund diesee Vorkommnisse in einer kreditfinanzierten Haussephase.
Doch was geschah gleichzeitig mit der "Leitwährung" US-Dollar, mit der alle Rohstoffpreise gerechnet werden? Sie erfuhr einen unbeschreiblichen Wert- und Kaufkraftverlustt, dank Big Al. Gold, Silber, Öl, Nickel usw, stiegen permanent. Sie werden weiter steigen, das weiss auch der Fisch Mr. Al, der in einem günstigen Zeitpunkt das sinkende Schiff rechtzeitig verließ.
Was eine weitere Frage aufwirft. Was für ein Fisch ist Alan Greenspan? Nein, er ist kein räuberischer Haifisch ( Mars/Neptun) sondern eher ein sich entziehender Tintenfisch, besser noch ein Goldfisch.
Dennoch passt hier das Lied von Mekki Messer:
...und der Haifisch, der hat Zähne, und der trägt sie im Gesicht, doch ein Dieb, der hat ein Messer, aber das Messer, sieht man nicht......
Also: Think!
In Kürze folgen ein paar Gedanken zur Gold Lease Rate.